I think CTV missed the mark a little bit. The headline for the SES Poll released last night for the convention was “Dion strong 2nd choice, poll of delegates shows“
Fair enough. Stephane Dion does have the most support amongst decided delegates for a second ballot at 23%, according to the SES Poll.
Here’s what makes me chuckle.
He (Allan Gregg) noted that 44 per cent of delegates polled say they are undecided on a second choice.
That’s DOUBLE the support of Dion and more than double the support of any other candidate, factoring in the margin of error.
I’m in no way disputing that Dion has some momentum going into this thing and for that matter so too does Kennedy. But I learned a hard lesson about polls recently and I just want to share that with everyone who is reading too much into this poll.
Leading up to the Ottawa municipal election there was a very large portion of undecideds (about the same as this poll) and, according to those damn polls, they almost all went to one candidate and that candidate had about 4% of the vote only two and a half months before the election, according to those polls again. This candidate was being written off as a potential winner (yes, I wrote him off too) right up until the last week of the race. Now he’s a sitting in the big chair.
Polls are a good snapshot and coming from a guy who works for one of the country’s top polling firms, take them with a grain salt.
Also, were the views of delegates who are not planning to attend the convention included in the SES poll?
It’s not a knock against Dion. It’s a “keep-your-head-in-the-game” message to Dion and Kennedy supporters as well as all of those in the race. Just keep doing what you do best - convince Canada (especially that 44% chunk of delegates) that your candidate is the best for the country.